We just finished analyzing the MODIS / Aqua satellite image shot the afternoon of May 27. It again clearly shows the main body of the oil slick (solid orange line) around the site of the leaking Macondo well, and also shows deep entrainment in the Loop Current. Disturbingly, we see signs of thin surfactant – possibly oil from this spill – in the Loop Current where it moves past the Dry Tortugas and toward the Florida Straits (dashed orange line):
There are natural processes that generate thin layers of oily surfactant, so this does not necessarily show that oil from the spill is moving into the Straits yet. But the spill has clearly been interacting with the Loop current since May 17, and at a speed of 1 to 2 knots (see below), ten days is enough time for some of that oil to have moved 240 to 480 nautical miles (276-552 miles). Although it’s 510 miles as the crow flies from the leaking well site to Florida Straits, the convoluted path taken by the Loop Current adds up to a total distance of about 900 miles, so we may not be there yet. Consider this a possibility, not a definitive conclusion.
Systematic water sampling in the eastern Gulf sure would be helpful to pin this down – is anyone doing that?
BP is currently trying out the “top kill” procedure to plug the leaking well. The success of this attempt is still uncertain, but at least the blowout preventer appears to be hanging together under the increased strain. Live video feed shows what appears to be a strong plume of oil and drilling mud coming from one of the leaks in the busted-up riser pipe. Keep your fingers crossed – this really needs to work.